Victoria and other parts of the B.C. South Coast is getting a serious soaking on the last day of meteorological winter, as another moisture-packed atmospheric river hits us, and the spring forecast is calling for more rain.
Heavy rainfall prompted weather warnings from Victoria to Nanaimo, as well as Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, with 50 to 70 mm possible by Monday night.
Sooke, Jordan River, and Port Renfrew had rainfall warnings forecasting up to 100 mm.
It’s similar to the wild weather we saw last fall — our wettest on record — and the first few weeks of meteorological winter, which began December 1st.
“That was an extremely active weather pattern, very La Niña-like, with lots of rain and snow and wind,” explains AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson. “Then all of a sudden in January, it flipped and what happened was the jet stream, instead of being directed at the Pacific Northwest, it shifted far to the northwest by Alaska.”
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Up until Sunday, Victoria had only had 18 mm of precipitation in February — just 20 per cent of the 89 mm that’s normal for this month.
Nanaimo was at less than a third of normal, with just 35 mm. Normal for the Harbour City for February is 126 mm.
Comox was at 40 per cent of seasonal before Sunday, with 46 mm instead of 114 mm.. and Tofino was at just a quarter of the typical 336 mm with only 88 mm.
Despite a wetter-than-normal start to winter, total rainfall with just two days left in winter below seasonal before this latest storm system.
Victoria received 312 mm from December 1st to February 26th, which is 83 per cent of the 375 mm that’s normal.
Nanaimo was at 380 mm or 76 per cent of the typical 498 mm for winter.
Comox saw 376 mm, or 78 per cent of the 474 mm that usually falls in winter and Tofino was at 746 mm for winter — just 59 per cent of the 1263 mm the West Coast town typically sees.
But more atmospheric rivers could be on the way, with AccuWeather’s seasonal forecast predicting wetter and colder-than-normal conditions for spring, thanks to a return to the La Niña pattern.
“There are strong signals that we’re looking at a stormier spring as the jet stream comes back in the area,” Anderson explains. “That’s going to most likely keep temperatures a couple of degrees below normal due to a lack of sunshine.”
It also means an extended ski season is likely, but so is the risk of late season spring flooding.
Tess van Straaten
